Head or tail?

[HmongKnight]

A person toss a coin 4 times in a row and all landed on tail. If he/she toss it the 5th times, what is it gonna be?? head or tail?

[HmongKnight]

damnn, no one can answer this?

[S.A.M.]

if you say heads, you are guilty of gambler's fallacy.
if you say tails, then you are guilty of reverse gambler's fallacy.

if the toss is a fair toss, then each toss is statistically independent.

50% chance heads, and 50% chance tails.

[HmongKnight]

It's not a 50% chances because it's already proven the first 4 throws that's it is not. If it would be a 50/50 chances then the first 4 throws would be 2-heads and 2-tails. But in this case, it's not.

[YAX]

4 times isn't enough to determine much because the next 4 times could be heads if it's 50/50, but if I had to bet, I'd say tail incase the coin was slightly heavier on one side.  Now if they switched coins then it's back to a 50/50 coinflip.

[HmongKnight]

Have you guys ever go play black jact at the casino? How many of you guys have run into this incident where won a few hundred dollars but didn't quit and lost it all back in less than 5 minutes? Well, that is because you didn't know the odd of probability. For instance, you play black jack and lost twice in a row. You then think that the third time around you will win so you put more money on the table. The dealer then beat you. The fourth time, you put even more money on the table because you're thinking he's already beaten you 3-times in a row you will win the fouth time. The dealer then beat you again. Now, you say the fifth time you will win and put all your money on the table. Again, the dealer beat you. You lost all your money and go home empty.

When you watch high rollers, those that play atleast $100 a hand on black jack table. If you watch them play closely, you will see that when they won twice in a row, they add more money to the table. But when they lost two or three times in a rwo, they bet the table's minimun. And when they won two out of three times consistantly, they bet close to the table's maximum bid. If the table's maximum bid is $1000, they will bet around $700 to $800 a hand.

So for the example above about the coin toss.. If it landed 4 times tails in a row, the chances are the fifth time will be tail also.

[kyrie_eleison]

Did you guys know that a coin weighs more on one side than the other?  It's strange but it's true.  That is why the theories as to why a coin toss is more likely to be 60/40. 

[HmongKnight]

THey did a study on coin toss. They threw 1000 times and it landed 550 times on tail and only 450 times on head.

[YAX]

Have you guys ever go play black jact at the casino? How many of you guys have run into this incident where won a few hundred dollars but didn't quit and lost it all back in less than 5 minutes? Well, that is because you didn't know the odd of probability. For instance, you play black jack and lost twice in a row. You then think that the third time around you will win so you put more money on the table. The dealer then beat you. The fourth time, you put even more money on the table because you're thinking he's already beaten you 3-times in a row you will win the fouth time. The dealer then beat you again. Now, you say the fifth time you will win and put all your money on the table. Again, the dealer beat you. You lost all your money and go home empty.

When you watch high rollers, those that play atleast $100 a hand on black jack table. If you watch them play closely, you will see that when they won twice in a row, they add more money to the table. But when they lost two or three times in a rwo, they bet the table's minimun. And when they won two out of three times consistantly, they bet close to the table's maximum bid. If the table's maximum bid is $1000, they will bet around $700 to $800 a hand.

So for the example above about the coin toss.. If it landed 4 times tails in a row, the chances are the fifth time will be tail also.

  If those guys were playing blackjack and they weren't counting cards.  I think they're not very good blackjack players, no matter what they bet.

[Mr. Complicated]

The coin felt slippery, like a fish and smells fishy…:D

- a two sided tail coin, will always be tail
- a head/tail coin, can be either because each toss, is independent of the previous tosses, therefore since the probability of head to tail is 50/50, it can be either.
- if previous tosses affect future outcome, it will be tail
 

[hmg-eng]

If we are talking about a coin with a head and a tail, then the next flip could be either heads or tail. It is true that a coin toss is 50/50 but when you consider them in succession then there is more math too it. It's been a while since I've done this type of math but you have to consider the odds of flipping a coin tails 5 times in a row.

So first flip 1/2 for tails, 2nd 1/2 for tails, 3rd 1/2 for tails, 4th 1/2 for tails. That is 1/16 or 6.25% that you would flip tails 4 times in a row. Now for 5 tails in a row it would be 1/32 or 3.125%. So the odds of flipping another tail is very low, making it very likely that it will land on heads.

[YAX]

Come to think of it. yah.. I'd choose heads too because if it's been heads 4 times in a roll, it's more likely that it'll be heads again. 

[Kumonryu]

A person toss a coin 4 times in a row and all landed on tail. If he/she toss it the 5th times, what is it gonna be?? head or tail?

It is going to be tails. 

[slude]

why do you keep arguing? just flip your own a god dam coin for the result.

sssheesss

 

[night912]

The answer is in the question. Head or tail. This isn't blackjack so you can't use the odds in the coin toss.