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Author Topic: Stock market fell-367 pts..  (Read 2694 times)

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Offline Gen. Invincible

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Stock market fell-367 pts..
« on: December 24, 2015, 04:03:46 PM »
Day traders are dead.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2015, 12:41:47 PM »
Not unless you were shorting them, but regardless of how the market trends, most day traders lose out anyways, that's nothing new.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2016, 10:59:09 AM »
True.  Most day traders lose out...but few with access to information make it big with the average Joe's money in a ira, 401k, etc...  All of our retirements are merely insurance for the wealthy playboys on wall street.  This is why for the past decades we've received next to zero interest in our savings, and sub-par return rate on our retirement account when looking at the whole before 2009.

Then what do you suggest as an alternative to traditional retirement vehicles?  I'm all ears.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2016, 10:40:13 AM »
Investing in a startup or creating one is SOOO much more riskier than investing in a traditional retirement fund.  9 out of 10 start ups fail and you want us to invest money in them?  They don't even pay dividends and there are ZERO tax advantages from payouts.  Affluent people invest in them because they have the wealth and resources to weather a start up that goes belly up.  You and I (normal people), don't.

Wowerz...yeah I don't think you've ever worked in a start up before if thats your only solution to retirement.  Start ups take a lot of time, money, and resources to grow.

Also 12% annual rate of return inflation adjusted, uhhh...I'll take that.

So I take it that you don't have any 401ks, IRAs, etc?



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2016, 10:49:00 AM »
I thought you were going to say real estate or something.  At least that, I would be more willing to buy into.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2016, 11:40:10 AM »
I'm not poking fun at you, I'm just interested in your rationale.  To me, start ups are some of the riskiest ventures to invest in and you get ZERO tax benefits out of it.  I mean, if you hit it big, then you hit it big.  The last one I was at was not performing well, however they were acquired so at least some money was made for option holders who were vested.

But I do agree that you should control your own destiny.  The stock market is influenced by a collective force of people and variables that no singular person controls.

I suspect 2016 will be a bad year for stocks. However like all the cycles before this one, the Chinese market will eventually normalize, energy prices will stablize (trading at $30/barrel or below is not sustainable) and the markets will pick up again.

Good luck on your project.



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Offline lilly

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2016, 03:48:21 PM »
I already told you retirement is an illusion.  It doesn't work for the majority.  I gave you two reasons priors:
1) The average life expectancy is improving.  When you look at the distribution below, more than half will not reach retirement and obtain their retirement.

[img][/http://economics.ucsd.edu/economicsinaction/issue-8/img/issue/retirement-distribution.jpg[\img]

2) When you examine the return rate of money in the stock market, normalized against 3.5% standard inflation, you get like at best 12% rate return, if you pulled out at the maxima of the market for that decade.  If you happen to retire on the wrong decade and went on the other side, minima, then you lose a bit. 

Basically, half the people get baloney.  You want to be the half who gets baloney?  Or do you want to take know at least you spent your money or tried your best?

If you want my opinion on a vehicle for investment, you do what the affluent people do, you roll the dice into a startup investment, or create your own startup business.  Either way, investment isn't investment any more because it's all a gamble now...nothing is guarantee, and assets are poorly allocated.  If you Google search, there are articles by Lynch and Bogles about how investments today is not investment of their days, and how the current system/regime have lost trust and honor to the people they serve.

Do you own DD before you take an investment strategy.  ;)  I've done my research.  I use to eat up all the craze about mutual funds, etc..., right until 2009...  When the folks who created the entire 401(k), mutual fund, IRA industry say something is wrong, you might want to listen.

O0  Agree 100% with you.

The only way to see 3-7% return on a retirement portfolio is to invest long for 20+ years, and even that is a risky move.  The stock market is not what it used to be.

Safer options:
1. A startup, but it's a risky move like 8v01un30sun mentioned.  Chance of your business succeeding is 10%-20% and chance of it failing is 70%, in my opinion.  So, do your research, know your markets, do the risk assessments before you're one of the ones among the 70%.

2. Real estate assets and cash flow are safer bets... but it depends on which economy you happen to be in... in a recession or in a growth period, buy outright or mortgaged, etc.

Safest bet is to keep it in bonds or in the bank or in a steel box deep in the ground somewhere.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2016, 06:24:48 PM »

Safest bet is to keep it in bonds or in the bank or in a steel box deep in the ground somewhere.

Really? Thatís probably one of the worst investment vehicles in todayís current market.  Interest rates are at an all-time low with the Feds expected to slowly increase the rates which will devalue bonds.  The only people who it would make sense for are hedge fund who might have financial resources to purchase bonds at auction/discounted prices to offset the lost in value from interest rate increases and obviously for risk mitigation.

However Iím guessing you are the type to buy and hold until maturity.  Well, good luck with that.  Since you are referring to ďsafetyĒ Iím assuming you are talking about treasuries or municipal bond and not corporate/junk bonds.  Well in that case, currently a 10 yr maturity treasury bond has a coupon rate of about 2-3%, not even enough to cover inflation over the next ten years in some instances.

bonds = bad decision for now unless you are trading them. You are better off keeping it in your bank account until interest rates improve or you find other better investment opportunities.


« Last Edit: January 12, 2016, 06:53:35 PM by Evil_K_Man »

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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2016, 01:14:56 PM »
EKM, the Chinese market IS NORMALIZING and that's why we are seeing a correction.

The context of my meaning is that the Chinese market will eventually stablize.  Their stock markets aren't going to continue to spiral downwards forever.  Could it be lower than where their past growth was this year and next?  Most likely, but that doesn't mean it can't recover down the road.

Investing in startup is very risky, but because the stock market is view as next to no return, people who want make money will have to venture.  This is what my research have directed me.  This is why I promote not investing in the stock market any more because the stock market you invest in is highly passive.  Only market with active participates are vibrant. 

Uhhh, yeah its passive (not sure how thatís news, unless you trade actively for gains), because most people who buy stock are not going to buy enough to get a seat on the board, just like someone who invest in startups will not always actively participate in company decisions (i.e. they too are passive, unless you work there).

Iím not saying to not invest in startups.  Iím just trying to let other people know that there are A LOT of risk with startups, moreso than the stock market.  So before they invest (passively), they need to understand that it will be a long time before they see the fruits of their investment, IF they even see it.  When start ups fail (9 out of 10 do), they will lose ALL of their money.  There is a reason why people or entities with LOTS and LOTs of money invest, because they can offset the lost from one start up with the gains from another.  Can you do that?  I'm guessing since you don't have LOTs and LOTs of money, you are putting your eggs in just one basket.  In that case....GOOD LUCK...cuz you're gonna need it.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2016, 04:37:10 PM »
No you didnít teach me anything ground breaking.  Investing your time and effort into a start up?  Yeah, been there done thatÖdidnít work outÖat least for me.  But with your confidence, Iím sure you will prevail where many have not.

2 corporate turnaround and one stroke of lightning strike at a startup.  You did this all single handedly?  Wow in that case, I underestimated you.  You definitely do not need me wishing you luck.



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Offline Evil_K_Man

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2016, 07:44:11 PM »
Glad to see you shifting some of your portfolio to cash after reading my post on Graham. 

Uhhh, no I didn't.  It was converted to cash because i was switching brokerage firms at the end of Dec...not because of what you posted, but feel free to give yourself credit.

Btw, I don't need your luck. 

Thanks, I'm always looking for good luck wishes.  The future is always so unpredictable in the short term.  If only I possessed your acuity, I would feel much more confident about my investment decisions.



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Offline lost_forever

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Re: Stock market fell-367 pts..
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2016, 01:21:00 PM »
My 401K dropped dramatically by -9%. Lost 4K  :'( >:( 



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