you're prisoner 1 of 3. Two of you are scheduled for execution and one is scheduled to be pardoned. You know that it means that of the other two, one of them has 100% chance of being executed. You explain this to the guard and mentioned that it means you only have a 50/50 chance since there's 2 of you left and only one execution left. The guard thinks you're crazy because your odds of survival is 1/3. Is the guard correct?
Now consider that someone told the guard who's to be executed but he's not allowed to tell anyone if they're going to be executed. You say "okay, you can't tell me about me, but of the other two, just let me know the one guaranteed to be executed?" and the guard tells you prisoner 2 is scheduled to be executed for sure. Now is your chances of survival 50/50?
You tell prisoner 3 what the guard tells you. He thinks you're silly because your odds of being executed is still 2/3 (odds of survival 1/3) but his odds of execution/survival is only 1/2 (50%). Is he correct?
Explain your logic.
