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Most Swiss back initiative to cap population at 10 million, poll showsZURICH, April 29 (Reuters) - A slim majority of Swiss are backing an upcoming referendum proposal to limit Switzerland's population to 10 million, and support for it is growing, an opinion poll showed on Wednesday.The government has rejected the initiative backed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) being put to voters on June 14, saying it will hurt cooperation with the European Union and damage the economy by restricting the labour market.But concern about rapid population growth and pressure on public infrastructure is encouraging many Swiss to support the proposal, the survey by media group Tamedia with newspaper "20 Minuten" and polling institute Leewas showed.Switzerland's population is now more than 9 million, with official data showing foreign nationals accounted for more than 27% by 2024.The survey, conducted on April 22 and 23 and published in newspaper Tages-Anzeiger, showed 52% of 16,176 respondents in favour of the proposal or leaning that way, while 46% took the opposite view. The rest gave no opinion.A previous poll from early March had shown 45% backing the initiative and 47% against it, the newspaper said, flagging the latest result as unusual in that Swiss referendum proposals generally lose support as the voting day comes closer.The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.Under the proposal, the permanent resident population must not exceed 10 million before 2050, and Switzerland should abandon its freedom of movement agreement with the EU.Swiss lawmakers are debating a Swiss-EU deal struck in late 2024 to deepen economic ties, after a challenging 2025 that saw Switzerland unexpectedly hit with the highest U.S. trade tariffs in Europe.The SVP, Switzerland's biggest party, opposes closer integration with the EU, seeing it as a threat to Swiss sovereignty and a source of excess regulation.
Switzerland To Vote on 10 Million Population Cap—Is It About Immigration?Switzerland will vote on Sunday on a proposal to cap its population at 10 million people, in a referendum that has become one of Europe's most closely watched tests of public attitudes toward immigration, national identity and economic growth.The initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), would require the government to take action if the country's population exceeds 10 million, including potentially ending Switzerland's agreement with the European Union on the free movement of people.The vote comes as Switzerland experiences one of Europe's fastest population increases. It has grown from 7.3 million in 2002, when Switzerland and the EU eased restrictions on cross-border living and work, to more than 9 million in 2025, according to Switzerland's Federal Statistics OfficeSupporters of the measure argue that rapid growth is placing unsustainable pressure on housing, transport networks and public services, while opponents say migrants are being blamed for problems that have more complex causes.The debate has exposed a deeper question about the future of one of Europe's wealthiest and most successful nations. Switzerland consistently ranks among the world's richest countries by GDP per capita and enjoys high living standards, low crime rates, strong public services and a globally competitive economy. Yet despite its prosperity, concerns over immigration and population growth have become increasingly prominent in Swiss politics.Polling shows the result is expected to be close—and its implications could extend far beyond Switzerland's borders. A victory for the proposal would intensify debates across Europe over migration, sovereignty and the balance between economic openness and national control.How the Vote Came AboutThe proposal was brought by the right-wing SVP, which has long made immigration control central to its politics. Under Switzerland's direct democracy system, the initiative reached the ballot after supporters gathered more than 100,000 signatures, forcing a nationwide vote on whether the permanent resident population should be capped at 10 million through 2050.The SVP argues the measure is needed because Switzerland’s rapid population growth, driven largely by immigration, is putting pressure on housing, transport, schools, health care and other public services. The party has also framed the debate as one of national identity, arguing that continued population growth risks eroding Switzerland's cultural character and traditional way of life.The referendum fits into a broader SVP campaign history focused on immigration, which has previously backed initiatives to automatically deport foreign criminals and end Switzerland's free-movement agreement with the European Union through its 2020 Limitation Initiative.Opponents, including the Swiss government and parliament, argue that the cap would damage the economy, worsen labor shortages and threaten Switzerland's relationship with the EU.But What Actually Are the Facts About Immigration in Switzerland?Last year, 165,386 foreign nationals moved to Switzerland, with two-thirds of them coming from the EU/European Free Trade Association (EFTA), according to the Swiss State Secretariat for Migration (SEM)’s 2025 migration report. The vast majority migrated for employment.Some 25,781 asylum applications were made last year, which is a 15 percent decline from 2023 and a significant decrease from the 39,523 applications in 2015, the start of the refugee crisis that saw around two million people migrate to Europe.Net immigration has also been falling rather than accelerating, declining by 10.5 percent in 2025 to 74,675 people as departures increased and arrivals declined.Despite these declines, foreign nationals account for a far larger share of Switzerland's population than the European average.Foreign nationals made up 27 percent of Switzerland's permanent resident population in 2024, federal statistics show, compared with nearly 10 percent of residents across EU member states, according to Eurostat.Opponents of the cap argue that these figures reflect Switzerland's long-standing reliance on foreign labor rather than a recent surge in migration.They also point to Switzerland's aging population. The country's fertility rate—the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime—fell to 1.3 in 2024, according to World Bank data, well below the replacement rate of around 2.1.Economists argue that migrant workers help offset labor shortages and support the tax base as the number of retirees grows.A Debate Over Immigration—or Swiss Identity?While the SVP’s position paper on the population cap initiative makes its case heavily on the party’s belief that immigration is putting too much pressure on housing and infrastructure, it also speaks at length about identity and culture.The SVP argues that without action, Switzerland risks "losing its identity" with Swiss people feeling "like strangers in their own country.""This is also about protecting our culture and identity—about the way we live together as a society," the party says, according to an AI translation of the German paper. The party lists "creeping Islamization" and "expatriates who speak only English" as concerns.Critics reject that characterizati on. Writing for the London School of Economics, political scientist Adrian Favero argued that the initiative "appears at first glance to be a debate about infrastructure or sustainability" but is instead an effort to frame migration as a cultural threat. He said the proposal simplifies complex social and economic challenges by attributing them to immigration and portraying migrants as a "dangerous other."Polling shows the country is split on the issue, with 47 percent for the measure and 47 percent against it, while 6 percent said they were undecided, according to a survey carried out by pollster GFS Bern which questioned 18,275 respondents between April 20 and May 3.A later poll by the same firm suggested the deadlock had eased somewhat, though the divide remained close, with 52 percent opposed, 45 percent in favor and 3 percent undecided. Some 18,372 people were surveyed between May 19 and May 27. Both polls had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.The figures underscore how deeply contested questions of immigration, identity and belonging have become in Swiss politics.Is This Article Fair?Select an option to vote. You can change it anytime.How Would the Vote Affect Switzerland and the EU?The initiative would require the Swiss government to take action once the population reaches 9.5 million and to prevent it from exceeding 10 million before 2050. If other measures failed, Bern would have to renegotiate or terminate international agreements that contribute to population growth.The biggest consequence would be for Switzerland's relationship with the European Union. That could mean ending Switzerland's agreement with the EU on the free movement of people, which allows EU citizens to live and work in Switzerland and Swiss citizens to do the same in EU countries.Because that agreement is part of a broader package of bilateral treaties, critics warn that ending it could trigger the collapse of other agreements linking Switzerland to parts of the EU single market. Switzerland’s Federal Council has said this would put Switzerland's economic ties with its largest trading partner at risk, affecting businesses, workers and cross-border cooperation.